Politicians and political parties leave no stone unturned to aim potshots at each other. And social media is indispensable for such propaganda. We all know most of the political slugfest on social media is either half-baked truth or twisted facts and it is always wise to steer clear of this noise. While just like any logical citizen of a democratic nation, I too avoid falling for such propaganda but one post caught my eye which is doing the rounds these days.

The post basically compares Prime Minister Modi’s performance with Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s on the basis of NSE Nifty Index levels and claims that Nifty is still at the same level when Modi took over because of his economic policies. The post appeared very misleading and so I decided to do some research and present a more palatable and factually correct side. 

I reason for this post is not to be a critique of either leaders but to present facts as-is.

Nifty

Monthly Nifty Levels from 2007 to 2016 (chart data source: Yahoo Finance)

For the above piece of work, I collected nine years of monthly Nifty data from Yahoo Finance,  plotted a chart, performed some basic technical analysis and placed some labelling. With this bit of effort, I was able to reveal the complete picture which is far more unambiguous than the sketchy and fallacious representation of make believe propaganda.

Here are some of the conclusions I could draw from the chart above:

  • From Sep’07 to May’14, the 50 share Nifty Index never crossed 6500 mark.
  • In fact, it dipped down to just over 2000 levels in 2008. We all know the Global Economic Recession was squarely to blame for it and not Manmohan Singh’s policies.
  • The first time in 7 years that Nifty crossed 6500 levels was after Prime Minister Modi took over the reigns of power in New Delhi.
  • For past few months, the Nifty has taken a beating and I believe the following Macro-Economic factors are responsible:
    • Crude Oil prices dipping to historically low levels.
    • Chinese slow down: This is a big one.
    • Indian Banking NPA Crisis: Well the monster is growing bigger and bigger with each passing quarter and has potential to bring some more bad news in the coming quarters.
  • Going forward 7000 and 6500 levels would act as key support levels for the Nifty. A strong downward breach of these levels on a monthly basis is likely to pull the 50 share index further down.

What I am basically trying to highlight through the analysis above is that Share Index performance is affected by a host of factors both Macro and Micro in nature and not just Govt policies. True, that Govt. policies shape up the overall economic environment in the country but investment in Indices and in turn, index levels depend on the economic situation and business opportunities in other parts of the world as well.

To falsely allege and manufacture misleading reports to establish that governance and economic policies of the present Government are acting as a pull back on growth is completely unacceptable. Most of us can easily understand if a social media post by a political party or an idealogical group is falsification of truth and to be taken with a pinch of salt. But sometimes we tend to take things at face value coz it might take a bit of effort to reveal the complete story. However in this case, all it took was 20 minutes to dispel the falsehood.

 

Aditya Dutta

http://www.linkedin.com/in/adityadutta

Twitter: @aditya_datta

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